Generation Film!

Come this Sunday the long, drawn out Award season shall come to a nail-biting close as we finally learn the choices the Academy has chosen for their prestigious and usually predictable handing out of self-congratulatory trophies. Even though the honor of what is deemed Best Picture or who is considered Best Actor or Director of a particular year doesn’t really matter it’s always a bit of fun to theorize, guess, or even compete with each other on our tactical choices, personal biases, and particular favorites relating to the films released in the last year. Below will be my official ballot with the choices I’m officially selecting for ballot competition that will be accompanied by some analysis of my choice, some comments on snubs, and a separation of “Who Will Win” the award versus my personal biases of “Who Should Win” the award. Also this means if you want to compete with my choices feel free to provide your own ballot choices in the comments section. I’ll offer again this year that those who submit their ballots and end up beating me in the competition shall receive a free Gold Ticket to an AMC that can be used on any film of your choosing whenever you’d like to use it. Alright, shall we begin?

Best Picture

And the 8 out of potentially 10 nominees are…

American Sniper

Birdman, Or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Who Will Win: Birdman; Who Should Win: Birdman or The Grand Budapest Hotel or Whiplash

Now while this category is usually easy to predict based on previous Award accolades this year it’s still an incredibly close and still up in the air race between Alejandro González Iñárritu’s critique of Hollywood and the cult of celebrity in Birdman, Or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance and Richard Linklater’s twelve year coming-of-age epic Boyhood. Historically speaking the real momentum is in Birdman‘s favor having acquired the trifecta of Guild prizes with the Screen Actor’s Guild Ensemble Award (SAG), the Best Picture recognition from the Producer’s Guild (PGA), and the coveted Best Director prize for Alejandro González Iñárritu at the Director’s Guild (DGA). However, Boyhood has its own momentum with winning both Best Picture and Director at the Golden Globes as well as the same two prizes from the British Academy at the BAFTAs. It’s hard to say which voters will have the most sway on this decision, but since everyone votes on the Best Picture prize from all guilds it seems the towering influence is in Birdman‘s corner and rightly so. Even though I’m an avid defender of Boyhood as being something far more poignant than being labeled a gimmick I still feel the prize should be given to any film that showcases a finer mastery of all the arts that go into a film, which for me would include a short list of Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Whiplash. These films have showcased a mastery of cinematography, editing, set design, and invoking a palpable message guided by artistry while Boyhood meanders in its experience never striking as strong an emotional or artistically resonating chord with audiences. It’s a grand piece of time focused cinema that has nostalgia and essence to enhance its literal coming-of-age plot, but it doesn’t approach the potent allegory or the all encompassing artistry of Birdman. It’s really a 50/50 decision though when it comes to selecting the right film so feel free to choose either Birdman or Boyhood and we’ll all feel less stressed once they finally announce the ultimate winner this Sunday.

Best Director (Updated)

And the nominees are…

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)

Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)

Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

Who Will Win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood); Who Should Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman) or Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Again this decision is way up in the air this year mostly because the momentum is going in varying directions whether you’re looking at the Director’s Guild prize that went to Alejandro González Iñárritu or the Golden Globe/BAFTA winnings for Richard Linklater. Ultimately your choice will probably coincide with your Best Picture guess since they seem to be linked together in every separate Awards ceremony though it’s always possible that Director could go for one movie and Picture go to another. There’s also the rare possibility that there could be a split vote and an unsuspecting third party, aka Wes Anderson, sneaks into the winners circle though it’s incredibly unlikely. DGA is usually the strongest indicator for a Best Director win and that’s what I’m basing my decision off of rather than Richard Linklater’s strong BAFTA prize that could very well translate into a Best Director win. This is another nail-biter finish category which means this is actually a rather exciting year to watch the Awards unfold since it’s been rather predictable the last couple of years. To finish this thought process I’d like to deviate a bit to discuss how ridiculous it was that Bennett Miller grabbed a nomination for his laborious, overly ponderous, and self-indulgent direction for Foxcatcher, a film that didn’t even grab a Best Picture nomination. That spot could have been open for a couple far more deserving up and coming directors including the great direction executed in the captured civil rights moment piece Selma by Ava DuVernay or in the hold your breath kinetic energy of Whiplash accomplished by the young Damien Chazelle. It’s a shame neither of these two got the recognition they actually deserved rather than the overly melancholic style of Miller or the standard British biopic feel from Morten Tyldum in The Imitation Game (a fine film but nothing extraordinary or boundary pushing).

UPDATE: My initial prediction above was for Alejandro González Iñárritu to win based on his DGA win. However, I’m thinking more and more that this will be another split year with Birdman winning Best Picture based on those merits and Boyhood winning on its directorial merits of being the conceptual achievement that it is from the mind, dedication, and resilience of Richard Linklater himself. Splitting Best Picture and Best Director might be ill advised at this point, but go for broke is the motto of any ballot competition/prediction. Plus, it seems the Independent Spirit Awards did just this today.

Best Actor

And the nominees are…

Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Who Will Win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything); Who Should Win: Michael Keaton (Birdman) or Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) or Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)

All of the acting categories are pretty set this year since every single favorite has gone to win all of the expected awards and it’s no different for Best Actor favorite Eddie Redmayne who has collected the Golden Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA for his performance as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. It’s a pretty safe bet that he’ll take home the prize for his laudable yet somewhat standard performance in what could be deemed an incredibly lackluster film which actually heightens everyone’s perception of his quality performance because everything around him is substandard and doesn’t take away from his work. There’s a slim chance that Michael Keaton could end up surprising for the Best Actor prize, but as the Award season has unfolded it just has seemed that the odds are increasingly in Eddie Redmayne’s favor. And don’t get me wrong because it’s a well deserved nomination since he had to be able to portray different stages of his physical degradation multiple times a day for varying scenes and his authentic capturing of Hawking’s charm as a student before his ailment resonates throughout the film even when speaking and movement are absent. However, it just seems this credible performance on equal footing of Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot was able to capture the acting prize based on being the sole feature of an otherwise lackluster film that showcased standard dialogue, amateurish direction, and obvious manipulation techniques most notably through score. Keaton is the only other nominee on the list that definitely deserves the Award and his amazingly layered performance clearly got lost in the onslaught of technical achievement that was around him in Birdman. What’s so astonishing about his performance is that it’s comedic, dramatic, emotional, and riveting without taking away from the whole experience that is Birdman as he compliments every shot and sequence that is being masterfully executed around him. Keaton’s part of the piece that is Birdman and unfortunately for him he’s being equated in that analysis for the Best Actor award. That’s how a decent amount of these contenders made it into the field, most notably Bradley Cooper for being quite stunning in a hollow, repetitively episodic, and stilted character study of a film while Steve Carell surprised us with his ability to creep us out in an equally lackluster film. Had the true talents of acting been considered then Cannes winner Timothy Spall would be up for his completely involving performance as JMW Turner and Jake Gyllenhaal would be granted recognition for his unsettling departure into pure sociopathy.

Best Actress

And the nominees are…

Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Who Will Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice); Who Should Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice) or Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) or Anne Dorval (Mommy)

Let’s first applaud the Academy for not stepping into the Jennifer Aniston trap that clearly conned most of the Awards branches from the Golden Globes to the SAG Awards. Once you’ve seen the uninspired Hallmark drama known as Cake you’d soon realize that Aniston’s adequate performance was merely a great publicity campaign that got out of hand since she clearly didn’t deserve a nomination even over others who didn’t make it from Hilary Swank in The Homesman, Amy Adams in Big Eyes, or Anne Dorval in Mommy. Every woman who is up in this category rightly deserves the recognition for their powerful performances even though it’s another set category with Julianne Moore undoubtedly taking home the prize and it’s a well deserved one at that. Her portrayal of early set Alzheimer’s was an emotionally captivating depiction of memory loss and captures every devastating setback with grace. While I have some biased preferences for Essie Davis in the artistic horror film The Badabook and Anne Dorval in Xavier Dolan’s futuristic societal contemplation on child rearing it’s futile to argue their absence since Moore is the clear winner in both career recognition and a truly authentic performance that trumps all others this Award season.

Best Supporting Actor

And the nominees are…

Robert Duvall (The Judge)

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)

Edward Norton (Birdman)

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

J.K. Simmons  (Whiplash)

Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash); Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) or Edward Norton (Birdman)

Another set category is the Best Supporting Actor race with longtime character actor J.K. Simmons finally obtaining some well deserved recognition not only for his career as a stunning and consistent actor but also for an uninhibited embodiment of a corporal punishment professor in Damien Chazelle’s enthralling Whiplash. It’s almost unfair when witnessing Simmons ability to mix in Machiavellian control techniques with occasional outbursts of pointed vulgarity in his all encompassing role as Professor Fletcher because no other actor this year came close to capturing his unleashed fortitude. The only contender that comes mildly close to even being in competition with the mighty Simmons is Edward Norton’s semi-meta embodiment of a fictional version of himself in Birdman. This won’t be a make or break category this year because everyone should be putting down J.K. Simmons name. Just a side note on the rest of the nominees: all of them are greatly deserving of their recognitions except for Robert Duvall who was fine in his performance in The Judge but was probably the only good thing about the entire hackneyed experience. Really Josh Brolin got robbed of a nomination in Inherent Vice because of the Academy voting worlds preference for the old timers who still do quality work. Not that it matters in the long run since this is Simmons award to take home.

Best Supporting Actress

And the nominees are…

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Laura Dern (Wild)

Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)

Emma Stone (Birdman)

Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood); Who Should Win: Emma Stone (Birdman) or Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) or Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer) or anyone else really

This is the one set category that I have an infinite amount of complaints about relating to the assumed win of Patricia Arquette for a good performance in Boyhood that while consistent and appropriate for the film was by far nowhere close to being the Best Supporting actress role this year. Even against the four main contenders in the listed category she doesn’t even deserve the award with even momentary consideration because all of them showcased emotive talent and lasting performance memory far more than Arquette approached in Boyhood. That isn’t even to mention the absence of other talents who also deserve recognition over her on the nomination front, including the Lady Macbeth mob performance of Jessica Chastain in J.C. Chandor’s A Most Violent Year (a film that got snubbed in numerous categories), Tilda Swinton in Bong Joo-ho’s science-fiction as class warfare film Snowpiercer, or even the wonderful Carrie Coon in David Fincher’s now underappreciated Gone Girl. Arquette was one of the least inspiring performances though in the experience of what Boyhood is I understand her placement in the running, but her win is merely a recognition of her career and dedication to the project and nothing more. If she wins this award for that reason than it’s completely unfair that Ethan Hawke was overlooked for his equal dedication, resilience, and complimentary performance for the Best Supporting Actor category. Put her down as a sure win but she definitely isn’t the for sure winner by any means.

Best Original Screenplay

And the nominees are…

Boyhood (Richard Linklater)

Birdman, Or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo)

Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman)

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness)

Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)

Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness); Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness)

This is practically another for sure win in this category for Wes Anderson’s whimsical reflection on generational storytelling known as The Grand Budapest Hotel with some minor threat coming from the camp of Birdman considering its momentum in other numerous categories in the Awards season. However, the Writer’s Guild of America (WGA) just awarded The Grand Budapest Hotel with Best Original Screenplay and that most likely translates into a for sure Academy Award win, especially with other awards such as the BAFTA in its corner. It’s a category of deserved nominations, minus E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman’s completely fictitious and shallow character study contained in Foxcatcher. That spot could have gone to far more deserving scripts from Mike Leigh’s improvised character study Mr. Turner to J.C. Chandor’s thoughtful period piece A Most Violent Year. Dan Gilroy’s Nightcrawler was a huge surprise for nabbing a spot in this category but it’s a well deserved nomination. All in all there are some fine Original Screenplays up for the Award but really only Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness’ The Grand Budapest Hotel should be the one taking home the prize.

Best Adapted Screenplay

And the nominees are…

American Sniper (Jason Hall)

The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)

Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)

The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)

Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)

Who Will Win: The Imitation Game (Graham Moore); Who Should Win: Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) or Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Since Graham Moore’s script adaptation for Andrew Hodges’ book “Alan Turing: The Enigma” just received the WGA for Best Adapted Screenplay it’s quite likely that it’s the film to take home the Best Adapted Screenplay award. All of the other films have certain weaknesses in either writing, perception, or just basic comprehension to allow them to surpass the efficiently written even if mildly standard screenplay for The Imitation Game. Actor Jason Hall’s American Sniper is too controversial, Damien Chazelle’s Whiplash is too confusing on whether it’s Original or Adapted, while Paul Thomas Anderson’s dogmatic adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel Inherent Vice is just too strange, elusive, and ambiguous for most Academy members to understand let alone seek out to actually watch it. The Imitation Game is the safe and obvious choice for Adapted Screenplay mostly because it’s a film that plays to audience’s comfort levels in a clearly made for Academy Awards film. If it were up to me though I would have gone with the Award to Damien Chazelle’s brilliantly layered and wonderfully thought out screenplay for Whiplash or even Paul Thomas Anderson’s authentic and accurate adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s gloriously enigmatic work in Inherent Vice. Sometimes the safest choice is the obvious choice and that’s the reality for Best Adapted Screenplay this year.

Best Animated Feature

And the nominees are…

Big Hero 6 (Chris Williams, Don Hall, Roy Conli)

The Boxtrolls (Travis Knight, Graham Annable, Anthony Stacchi)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois, Bonnie Arnold)

Song of the Sea (Tomm Moore, Paul Young)

The Tale of Princess Kaguya (Isao Takahata, Yoshiaki Nishimura)

Who Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois, Bonnie Arnold); Who Should Win: Song of the Sea (Tomm Moore, Paul Young)

With what would have been the favorite The LEGO Movie now out of the  running it’s an almost free for all for the Best Animated Feature Award. It seems likely that the Golden Globe winner How to Train Your Dragon 2 will move into the assumed victory circle now though it’s entirely likely that Disney’s Big Hero 6 could make a potential upset as the winner. Really it’s either one of the big Animated giants victory in this category as DreamWorks and Disney battle for the spot that should actually go to some of the more deserving contenders in animated artistry, namely Ireland’s beautiful Song of the Sea with the exquisite stop motion animation of The Boxtrolls close behind. Neither of these two worthy winners will actually get the prize because it’s quite likely that most Academy members avoided seeing them and stuck with the prominent choices of basic animation entertainment (this is more common than you’d hope for voting members of art). Most of the previous awards have gone to Chris Miller and Phil Lord’s The LEGO Movie which in my opinion didn’t really deserve the Award either but a nomination would definitely have been warranted. All those The LEGO Movie fans will be grinding their teeth as they’re filling out their ballots.

Best Foreign Language Film

And the nominees are…

Ida (Pawel Pawlikowski-Poland)

Leviathan (Andrey Zvyagintsev-Russia)

Tangerines (Zaza Urushadze-Georgia)

Timbuktu (Abderrahmane Sissaako-France)

Wild Tales (Damián Szifrón-Argentina)

Who Will Win: Ida (Pawel Pawlikowski-Poland); Who Should Win: Ida (Pawel Pawlikowski-Poland)

The Best Foreign Film category is always difficult to guess mostly because split votes happen often and an unassuming victor finds themselves in the winners circle blowing every prediction out of the water. However, the immensely beautiful and heartwarming film from Poland entitled Ida seems as though it’s the for sure candidate to walk away with the prize. There are assumptions that Ida and Timbuktu might split a good amount of votes and allow Argentina’s Wild Tales to slip through the cracks but it’s an unlikely scenario. Ida with it’s gorgeous black & white cinematography (also up for an Academy Award) plus its challenging themes relating to identity, religion, and sexuality are all Academy Award darling subject matter which makes it a suitable and deserving pick for Best Foreign Feature. If you aren’t comfortable picking what is the safe and obvious choice in this category you better put down Wild Tales because that’s the only other option that could run away with this Award against all sensible predictions.

Best Documentary Feature

And the nominees are…

Citizenfour (Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy, Dirk Wilutsky)

Finding Vivian Maier (John Maloof, Charlie Siskel)

Last Days in Vietnam (Rory Kennedy, Keven McAlester)

The Salt of the Earth (Wim Wenders, Lelia Wanick Salgado, David Rosier)

Virunga (Orlando von Einseidel, Joanna Natasegara)

Who Will Win: Citizenfour (Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy, Dirk Wilutsky); Who Should Win: Finding Vivian Maier (John Maloof, Charlie Siskel)

It will be interesting to see how the Best Documentary Feature category unfolds because as of right now the favorite to win is the Snowden documentary Citizenfour with only a minor potential upset coming from the high advertising camp of Virunga. The name of the game is politics and social issues within this category so either of those two would be likely candidates to take home the award. However, my bias for photography and personal stories has me wishing that the beautifully told Finding Vivian Maier might pull off a deserving upset in this category since it’s an intimate and well constructed documentary that’s well deserving of the Academy Award. Most of my favorite documentaries throughout this past year from Jodorowsky’s Dune to Tales of the Grim Sleeper all got passed up for even a nomination so there isn’t much for me to root for here (though I did also really enjoy Wim Wenders documentary The Salt of the Earth). This is most likely Citizenfour‘s victory and one of the so-called safe bet categories at this year’s Academy Awards.

Best Cinematography