Generation Film!

As the time gets nearer to the announcements of the Academy Awards this upcoming Thursday I thought it would be wise to revisit my original predictions made in November. By this point in time I’ve seen all the contending films minus some of the foreign titles and have kept myself up to date on the award nominations that have been announced up to this point. I’m fairly certain my instinct is correct on the type of films that the Academy recognizes and feel confident that I can attempt to guess the nominees at an 80% certainty rate (claiming anything higher would just be pretentious) and we’ll see how much of my original prediction changes. So the following are the big award contenders including Best Picture, Best Director, etc. along with a mention of one or two other titles or people that could potentially sneak into each category. These are my picks for nominations and not my official Oscar Ballot selections, which will come in January right after they are officially announced. Once you’ve read them let me know if you agree or if you think I’ve left any films or performances or directing achievements out.

Best Picture

1. Zero Dark Thirty

2. Argo

3. Lincoln

4. Silver Linings Playbook

5. Les Miserables

6. Life of Pi

7. Moonrise Kingdom

8. Beasts of the Southern Wild

9. The Master

10. Django Unchained

These are actually all the titles on my original prediction list just rearranged based on strength of likely nomination. The Bond movie Skyfall almost made the list based on its Producer’s Guild nomination but I have a strong feeling it won’t make the contending list for Picture. At this point we can definitely rule out The Dark Knight Rises and Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit. Basically the only wild card is Skyfall and if it happens to make it into the category then I will have got 9 out of 10 correct (that is if they do in fact nominate 10 this year) even though there really aren’t too many contending films this year despite a large amount of critically acclaimed films. Still very much up in the air which film will win, though Argo or Lincoln seem like Academy favorites.

Best Director

1. Ben Affleck (Argo)

2. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

3. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

4. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

5. Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)

There are two distinct changes here from my original list and that is Ang Lee over David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook and Kathryn Bigelow over Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master. The above five are the Director’s Guild nominations and those are usually the most accurate for the Academy Awards. Many will complain Quentin Tarantino isn’t on the list or even mentioned for consideration but it’s just one of those years where good directors achievements get overlooked. My deep hope is that Wes Anderson pulls a surprise consideration into this category. Still not sure who will win but something tells me the Academy might go with Ben Affleck.

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

2. Denzel Washington (Flight)

3. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

4. John Hawkes (The Sessions)

5. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

It will be heartbreaking not to have Joaquin Pheonix up for his transformative role in The Master but he’s an anti-awards season loudmouth who has basically ruined his chances based on his lack of desire to brown nose uppity Academy members. Taking him off my prediction list is the only change I’ve made replacing him with Bradley Cooper who has received a SAG nomination and has the power of the Weinstein Company behind his nomination bid. It’s still Daniel Day-Lewis as the frontrunner to win but we’ll see how likeability comes into play because basically everyone might have a chance, especially Hugh Jackman.

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

3. Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)

4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

5. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

It’s looking likely that my longs hot pick Emmanuelle Riva will indeed get a nomination (which she deserves) while it looks like my original pick of Quvenzhane Willis from Beasts of the Southern Wild will get pushed out by Naomi Watts. Helen Mirren has received praise for Hitchcock so she could easily surprise many with a nomination that she truthfully would not deserve. It’s either these five women or one of them leaves for the young and talented Quvenzhane Willis. As for who might win that will probably be between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, which are two very different performances.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

2. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

3. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

4. Alan Arkin (Argo)

5. Javier Bardem (Skyfall)

I’m in complete disagreement that Javier Bardem should get a nomination for his eccentric performance in Skyfall but he did land a SAG nomination so it’s very possible he has edged out both Leonardo DiCaprio and Christoph Waltz from consideration from Django Unchained. Everyone else is exactly where I had them and it could be a mistake to pander to other influences by taking DiCaprio out from my original predictions because he could very well pull a nomination. However, it’s almost futile whoever gets nominated because it’s pretty much Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s prize to win with some minor threat presence from Tommy Lee Jones.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

2. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

3. Sally Field (Lincoln)

4. Amy Adams (The Master)

5. Maggie Smith (Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

This is a category that I have not changed from my original predictions despite the threatening nomination presence of Nicole Kidman for The Paperboy and Ann Dowd from Compliance. The above list just seems like the appropriate nominations and it would be deeply surprising to see any one of those five not in that category.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)

2. The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)

3. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)

4. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

5. Looper (Rian Johnson)

The only change here is with Rian Johnson’s script for the science-fiction action film Looper, which earned a Writer’s Guild nomination for original screenplay suggesting people have warmed up to more fantastical creative writing. That means that I have removed Michael Haneke’s Amour from my original prediction list though it still very well could make an appearance in this category (as well as Picture, though foreign films are very unlikely to get in there). John Gatin’s script for Flight still could earn recognition due to the fact that it too got a WGA nomination.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

2. Argo (Chris Terrio)

3. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

4. Life of Pi (David Magee)

5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)

Not much has changed from my original prediction list in this category since only Les Miserables was removed to make way for David Magee’s adapted screenplay for Life of Pi.

Best Animated Feature

1. Frankenweenie

2. Brave

3. Wreck It Ralph

4. Paranorman

5. Rise of the Guardians

No change from my original prediction list…none of the obscure animated films could really push any of these contenders out. This usually is an American dominated category and for some reason I think the unappreciated Frankenweenie might pull off a win but definitely competition from Wreck It Ralph.

Best Foreign Film

1. Amour (Austria)

2. No (Chili)

3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)

4. The Intouchables (France)

5. Beyond the Hills (Romania)

Originally I had thought the South Korean film Pieta might make the nominations but the above five look like the solid five with a for sure victory in sight for Amour.

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Gatekeepers

2. How to Survive a Plague

3. Searching for Sugar Man

4. Bully

5. Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God

This is actually a category I didn’t consider in my original prediction list so these are all new. Other documentaries that could inch their way into consideration are The Imposter and This is Not a Film.

Best Production Design

1. Les Miserables

2. Anna Karenina

3. Lincoln

4. Life of Pi

5. The Hobbit

These are my original picks, no change

Best Cinematography

1. The Master (Mihai Malaimare Jr.)

2. Life of Pi (Claudio Miranda)

3. Les Miserables (Danny Cohen)

4. Lincoln (Janusz Kaminski)

5. Skyfall (Richard Deakins)

While I’m a huge fan of Richard Deakins work I’m still unconvinced he deserves a nomination for cinematography over Ben Richardson for Beasts of the Southern Wild or Greig Faser for Zero Dark Thirty. But that’s how it’s looking based on what’s been murmured about up to this point.

Best Editing

1. Argo (William Goldenberg)

2. Zero Dark Thirty (William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor)

3. The Master (Leslie Jones, Peter McNulty)

4. Les Miserables (Chris Dickens)

5. Lincoln (Michael Kahn)

The only change here is removing the incredibly overrated The Dark Knight Rises from consideration though it still could manage a nomination (although wouldn’t win). Life of Pi has a better chance of making the nominations list.

Best Costume Design

1. Les Miserables

2. Anna Karenina

3. Lincoln

4. Cloud Atlas

5. Django Unchained

The Master was removed from my original list to make room for Django Unchained.

Best Make Up and Hair

1. Les Miserables

2. Lincoln

3. The Hobbit

Only three in this category and originally I had Cloud Atlas as a possibility though it looks like Les Miserables will secure that place.

Best Musical Score

1. The Master (Johnny Greenwood)

2. Lincoln (John Williams)

3. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)

4. Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)

5. Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)

No change here either, these are the original predictions though Argo might be able to sneak its way into the final five.

Best Song

1. Skyfall (Skyfall)

2. Suddenly (Les Miserables)

3. Learn Me Right (Brave)

4. Still Alive (Paul Williams: Still Alive)

5. Touch the Sky (Brave)

This is a new category that I didn’t guess before for my original prediction list. Some might find it humorous to know that I already have a bet going with this category over the potential nomination over Bon Jovi’s song for the terrible, terrible movie Stand Up Guys. It’s comforting to know even Ted, Django Unchained, or The Hunger Games could get nominations before that god awful film.

Best Sound Editing

1. The Avengers

2. The Dark Knight Rises

3. Zero Dark Thirty

4. Skyfall

5. Life of Pi

These are my original picks but both Les Miserables and Django Unchained could make the nomination list easily.

Best Sound Mixing

1. The Avengers

2. Les Miserables

3. Life of Pi

4. The Dark Knight Rises

5. Zero Dark Thirty

Another category that is unchanged though Skyfall, Django Unchained, or Lincoln could push out one or two of the above listed.

Best Visual Effects

1. Life of Pi

2. The Avengers

3. The Hobbit

4. Cloud Atlas

5. Prometheus

Another category unchanged and unlikely to be any different.

Best Animated Short

1. Paperman

2. Adam and Dog

3. Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare

4. The Eagleman Snag

5. Dripped

Best Documentary Short

1. Open Heart

2. Education of Mohammad Hussein

3. Mondays at Racine

4. Inocente

5. Redemption

Best Live Action Short

1. Curfew

2. Death of a Shadow

3. When You Find Me

4. 9Meter

5. Asad

Let me know what you think of the list and be sure to check out its accuracy once they are announced on Thursday.