Generation Film!

Well it’s that time again when all the big Oscar contenders begin to be released. They are usually a collection of serious contenders, forcibly made rubbish, or independent surprises and while the awards are practically meaningless when authenticating a film as a good one the awards still seem to grab our attention including our hopes and frustrations. While I personally haven’t seen all of the films that are potential award winners I’m fairly certain my instinct is correct on the type of films that the Academy recognizes and feel confident that I can attempt to guess the nominees at an 80% certainty rate (claiming anything higher would just be pretentious). So the following are the big award contenders including Best Picture, Best Director, etc. along with a mention of one or two other titles or people that could potentially sneak into each category. These are my picks for nominations and not my official Oscar Ballot selections, which will come in January right after they are officially announced. Once you’ve read them let me know if you agree or if you think I’ve left any films or performances or directing achievements out.

Best Picture

1. Les Miserables

2. Argo

3. Beasts of the Southern Wild

4. Lincoln

5. Silver Linings Playbook

6. The Master

7. Moonrise Kingdom

8. Zero Dark Thirty

9. Life of Pi

10. Django Unchained

The above list is taking into consideration that the Academy will potentially nominate 10 films (last year they only nominated 9…how odd). Really the two top contenders are Ben Affleck’s political thriller Argo (which I found to be a tad conventional if indeed entertaining) and Tom Hooper’s musical revival of Les Miserables (pretty much my pick for the winner but need to see it first to confirm). Other possible nominees might be Peter Jackson’s return to fantasy and fandom with The Hobbit, Christopher Nolan’s critically praised though extremely messy The Dark Knight Rises, or Robert Zemeckis’ alcoholism drama Flight. There aren’t many top contenders and anything filling in the other top 7 will have no chance of winning but will just have to revel in their recognition.

Best Director

1. Ben Affleck (Argo)

2. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

3. Tom Hooper (Les Miserable)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)

5. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

This category is a bit elusive this year because it has many return nominees most of whom have not won the coveted prize and two who have won. I’m fairly certain these will be your five nominees for director but some other possibilities might include Ang Lee for his direction of Life of Pi, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, or Quentin Tarantino for his bloody western Django Unchained. Not going to choose a definite pick for a winner yet though Tom Hooper is a favorite.

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

2. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

3. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

4. Denzel Washington (Flight)

5. John Hawkes (The Sessions)

This category is pretty much spoken for already and there isn’t much room for replacement. Perhaps Anthony Hopkins could inch in their for his performance as Alfred Hitchcock or Bradley Cooper who has a better chance of making it in there for his portrayal of a man with sever bipolar disorder. I’m fairly certain many people will be rooting for Hugh Jackman because of how well liked and popular he is but something tells me the Academy will go with their favorite master class actor Daniel Day-Lewis.

Best Actress

1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

2. Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)

3. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

4. Quvenzhane Willis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

5. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

Two of my instinctual picks are indeed foreign actress performances but this hasn’t been an extraordinarily competitive year for actresses. Helen Mirren could get a nomination for Hitchcock or maybe even Keira Knightley for Anna Karenina. Ultimately this just might be Jennifer Lawrence’s year since she’s a young, up and coming popular actress who has already captured an Academy Award nomination before. Though if Jessica Chastain does indeed get nominated she could pull into the front contender slot.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

2. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

3. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

4. Alan Arkin (Argo)

5. Leonardo Dicaprio (Django Unchained)

If indeed Phillip Seymour Hoffman gets nominated for this category it’s practically unfair because his performance is practically a lead one as he dominates scenes through The Master. His one direct competitor though is definitely Tommy Lee Jones who is quite extraordinary in Lincoln and steals the spotlight on numerous occasions. Some other potential nominees who could sneak into this category are Dwight Henry in Beasts of the Southern Wild or Russell Crowe in Les Miserables.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

2. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

3. Amy Adams (The Master)

4. Sally Field (Lincoln)

5. Maggie Smith (Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

Anne Hathaway should just be preparing her Oscar speech now because it’s practically calling her name and I haven’t even seen the movie yet (have heard she’s incredible). Even though all these other actresses are great in their roles it’s just usually a category you can pick way before the politics get involved. Other potential nominees could be Jackie Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook, Ann Dowd in Compliance, or Amanda Seyfried in Les Miserables.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)

2. The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)

3. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)

4. Amour (Michael Haneke)

5. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Even though Zero Dark Thirty is technically based on an adapted source it still makes the qualification of Original Screenplay. But it really doesn’t have a chance of winning when compared to three auteur works from Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Quentin Tarantino. Perhaps Rian Johnson’s script for Looper could inch in there for consideration or even John Gatins’ script for Flight. The Academy does love quirky and since Wes Anderson is the second coming of Woody Allen in a sense he might be a shoe in for victory this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Argo (Chris Terrio)

2. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

3. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

4. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)

5. Les Miserables (William Nicholson)

Not a lot of competition for this category either, though The Sessions might be considered or even Life of Pi.

Those are the big categories for now. I’ll be adding Cinematography, Foreign Film, Animated Feature, etc. in another post coming soon. Let me know if you agree or there should be other films considered in each category.